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This is one of the most fun episodes we record each year. Both Will and BJ look forward to reviewing their predictions from the previous year and creating new ones. It’s important to stay up to date with the changes in technology, especially in your particular field.
While this year was less unpredictable than some other recent years, it did see a lot of interesting developments both in tech and outside of it. For many people, it has been a tough year and nearly everyone has had to make some adjustments. Whether we like it or not, though, this year is nearly over and the new year is about to begin.
In many respects, 2022 was a mop-up operation for the things that happened in 2020 and 2021. While the pandemic story and other things caused by it are far from over, for many, this year did represent a bit of a return to something resembling normal life. However, like all years so far in this decade, a number of curve-balls were thrown. We hope you made tremendous personal progress this year. We look forward to 2023.
There will be a boom of AI created art. Already AI artwork is selling within the art community. This will trickle down to the regular buyer, we may even see AI artwork in big stores like Target within the year. That said, with the prevalence of AI artwork, even stories, human created and original works will become a premium.
We’re going to see a social media decline at some point. It may not be this year but I’m predicting it now. From the inane censorship issues to Elan Musk buying Twitter and bans on Tik Tok because of it’s parent company. I’m predicting that the newest generation is going to push back and we may even start to see a move away from using social media as a form of communication.
Renewed turmoil in the Middle East. Iran is disbanding their decency police force and as of this recording considering removing or revising some of the laws around what women must wear in public. While this is a win for women’s rights and freedom, there will be zealots who do not like these changes. This is likely to lead to unrest and that area becoming another hotbed.
New suppliers for cheap computer components will emerge. With the current and looming issues between the US and China among other things there is an opportunity for a new or several new suppliers for cheap electronic parts. It would be nice if we could get some manufacturing back on US soil but not likely so I expect to see one or more of the US allies (US influenced) countries to emerge and a new hub for exporting cheap parts.
Significant supply chain issues will continue and will be exacerbated by governments being dumb. These may correspond to supply shortages, or be the results of war. These shortages will almost certain impact fossil fuels, food, medical supplies, and electronics. While this will make both consumers and business more price sensitive, it may open up opportunities as well. There may be a lot of money to be made for those who can save companies a lot of money.
More global flashpoints will flare up. If anything, the situation in Ukraine and all the rhetoric around it, didn’t make anyone look like a definite winner who can’t be beaten. As a result, other parties are likely to become more bold. This will lead to large scale human migration in addition to shortages. You’ll also see an increase in tension between western countries and the rest of the world, as the latter have grown tired of being pushed around and the leaders of the former are desperate to keep attention off their failed policies at home. This might open additional fronts in the chaos.
There will be a lot of tech layoffs. Many tech companies have excessive headcount and a lot of them have become slow and unproductive as a result. However, there will still be plenty of companies hiring and at good rates in an effort to avoid employee attrition due to inflation. Now is a good time to really lean into the effort of expanding your skill-set and personal network before you need it.
Outsourcing is going to get more complicated and may offer less of an advantage than before. Besides the complications that a supply chain issues and wars create, standards of living are rising in many places outside the west. This tends to raise the salaries of overseas workers. There will also probably be more regulatory pressure applied to make sure that citizen data from certain zones (probably the EU, not the US) doesn’t end up on overseas servers. As emerging markets get better, this may also create opportunities for serving those markets, rather than one-size-fits-all solutions that are more common to the bigger markets. And all this is without considering the risk of widening regional conflicts.